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2018

Natural rubber prices are rising fiercely

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Natural rubber prices have been at a high level after the recent rebound. Ding Helong, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that at present, the market's upward momentum is too strong, and the downstream market's recent sales performance is still good. It has not been affected by too many US "double anti-dumping" cases. In addition, the Shanghai rubber is currently rising strongly in the market. So far, Shanghai rubber futures have broken through the 11,000 yuan/ton mark and are still on the rise.

Data from the General Administration of Customs of China showed that the import volume of natural rubber (including latex) in May was 193,226 tons, a decrease of 9% month-on-month and an increase of 38% over the same period last year; the import volume from January to May was 1,010,495 tons, an increase of 3.8% year-on-year. In May, the import volume of synthetic rubber (including latex) was 271,956 tons, a decrease of 7% month-on-month and a sharp increase of 91% year-on-year; the import volume from January to May was 1,261,805 tons, an increase of 97% year-on-year.

Last Friday, Shanghai rubber futures rose strongly, and the main contract 1609 closed at 11,015 yuan/ton. Although the futures market has risen sharply this time, it is still relatively low, and the 10,000 yuan mark has strong support. At present, the downstream market has not been hit too much. The sales of heavy trucks increased significantly in May, and the downstream demand performance is acceptable. Although some regions still maintain a wait-and-see mentality, overall, the tire market has delivered a satisfactory answer. Domestic rubber producing areas have started harvesting one after another, and the supply of raw materials has gradually increased, which has alleviated the excessive supply pressure in the natural rubber market to a certain extent. At present, the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has decreased significantly, which has stimulated the sales of new rubber to a certain extent.

Hualian Futures analysts said that the Alliance of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) is not optimistic about the global rubber production and sales for the whole year, and the industry as a whole is still sluggish. After a short-term rebound, consider shorting at highs once stagflation occurs. The short-term reference pressure level and short selling level are 11,000 yuan/ton, and the medium-term reference pressure level and short selling level are 12,000 yuan/ton.

Ding Helong said that at present, the fluctuation range of natural rubber is relatively large, and most of the industry players are cautious and purchases are relatively small. In addition, there are both good and bad news in the market, and the price of natural rubber will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended that the industry players expand the fluctuation range.